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Against Fear by Heather Mac Donald

739 bytes added, 12:49, 8 October 2020
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The media and Democratic establishments are in a frenzy of Schadenfreude over President Trump’s Covid diagnosis. Trump’s contracting the disease, they argue, discredits any coronavirus policy short of lockdowns and mandatory mask-wearing, outdoors as well as in. Trump is now “exhibit No. 1 for the failure of his leadership on coronavirus,” Democratic pollster Geoff Garin told the New York Times.The media and Democratic establishments are in a frenzy of Schadenfreude over President Trump’s Covid diagnosis. Trump’s contracting the disease, they argue, discredits any coronavirus policy short of lockdowns and mandatory mask-wearing, outdoors as well as in. Trump is now “exhibit No. 1 for the failure of his leadership on coronavirus,” Democratic pollster Geoff Garin [https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/02/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-campaign.html told] the New York Times.It is not even clear that a more work-friendly policy would lead to more deaths. While the profile of the typical coronavirus decedent has been known for months—median age 80, suffering from co-morbidities that likely would have killed the person anyway—the exact path of transmission remains mysterious. There is no correlation globally between degree of lockdowns and coronavirus death rates. Countries such as Britain that imposed strict lockdowns have massively higher death rates than many countries, such as Japan, that mandated no lockdowns. Deaths and hospitalizations are going down in localities that were more commerce-friendly. There is still no uncontroverted evidence on mask-wearing. Thousands upon thousands of people who have assiduously worn masks have gotten the virus; thousands upon thousands who have not worn masks have not gotten it. Countries with extensive mask-wearing show no better results than several where people breathe free outdoors. What we do know is that transmission occurs overwhelmingly in poorly ventilated indoor spaces, between individuals who have been in close contact for a considerable period of time—15 minutes, in the CDC’s contact-tracing guidelines. The viral load in circulating outdoor air is too low to pose a risk to people passing one another in ordinary street interactions.It is not even clear that a more work-friendly policy would lead to more deaths. While the profile of the typical coronavirus decedent has been known for months—[https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-covid-age-penalty-11592003287 median age 80], suffering from co-morbidities that likely would have [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/25/two-thirds-patients-die-coronavirus-would-have-died-year-anyway/ killed the person anyway]—the exact path of transmission remains mysterious. There is no correlation globally between degree of lockdowns and coronavirus death rates. Countries such as Britain that imposed strict lockdowns have massively higher death rates than many countries, such as Japan, that mandated no lockdowns. Deaths and hospitalizations are [https://azbigmedia.com/business/new-covid-19-cases-in-arizona-continue-to-decrease-in-october/ going down] in [https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/10/02/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/ localities] that were more [https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/05/04/are-texas-coronavirus-cases-on-the-downturn-these-charts-tell-the-real-story/ commerce-friendly]. There is still no uncontroverted evidence on mask-wearing. Thousands upon thousands of people who have assiduously worn masks have gotten the virus; thousands upon thousands who have not worn masks have not gotten it. Countries with extensive mask-wearing show no better results than several where people breathe free outdoors. What we do know is that transmission occurs overwhelmingly in poorly ventilated indoor spaces, between individuals who have been in close contact for a considerable period of time—15 minutes, in the CDC’s [https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/principles-contact-tracing.html contact-tracing guidelines]. The viral load in circulating outdoor air is too low to pose a risk to people passing one another in ordinary street interactions.The long-known facts about the distribution of mortality risk from the coronavirus—relatively high at the upper age and illness range, negligible in the young—have made no difference to the tyranny of fear. On average, the coronavirus is, according to new WHO data, not more deadly than the flu, yet the conflation of cases with deaths is now absolute. When California State University, Long Beach, a campus of 37,000 students, shuts down because five students tested positive for the virus, we are in the realm of hysteria. When the New York Times portrays a 101-year-old military veteran as a coronavirus fatality, as opposed to someone who died of old age; when the Milwaukee coroner does the same for the death of an 89-year-old male with dementia, hypertensive and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and chronic renal failure, you know that the media and public-health establishments are looking for any excuse to inflate the death numbers.The long-known facts about the distribution of mortality risk from the coronavirus—relatively high at the upper age and illness range, negligible in the young—have made no difference to the tyranny of fear. On average, the coronavirus is, [https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1312180625412038656 according to new WHO data], not more deadly than the flu, yet the conflation of cases with deaths is now absolute. When California State University, Long Beach, a campus of 37,000 students, shuts down because five students tested positive for the virus, we are in the realm of hysteria. When the New York Times portrays a 101-year-old military veteran as a coronavirus fatality, as opposed to someone who died of old age; when the Milwaukee coroner does the same for the death of an 89-year-old male with dementia, hypertensive and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and chronic renal failure, you know that the media and public-health establishments are looking for any excuse to inflate the death numbers.
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